We all remember how Shah Rukh Khan enters Kabhi Khushi Kabhie Gham as his mother, played by Jaya Bachchan, waits to welcome him home. We have all swooned over that iconic scene. As children growing up in the 1990s and 2000s, many of us imagined that this was what it felt like to return home after living abroad. Bollywood had long romanticised foreign lands, and every child seemed to dream of moving to London and living among those ivory towers. Going abroad for higher studies was considered nothing short of a dream come true. We all knew cousins who returned from foreign shores after completing their degrees, only to be treated like celebrities. But here we are in 2026, and that dream appears to be cracking a little.Data provided by the Bureau of Immigration (BoI) shows that the number of Indians who disclosed education or study as their purpose of travelling abroad fell for the second consecutive year in 2025. From a post-Covid peak of 8,94,758 in 2023, the number dropped to 7,60,060 in 2024 and further to 6,19,264 in 2025.The decline is substantial. In just two years, nearly 2.76 lakh fewer Indians travelled abroad for study than in 2023.The million-dollar question, however, is not whether Indian students are still going abroad. They obviously are. The real question is: Why has the frenzy begun to cool?The answer may lie in a fundamental change in both the economics and psychology of overseas education.
From aspiration to calculation
The post-pandemic surge was extraordinary. The number of Indians travelling abroad for education jumped from 4,45,580 in 2021 to 7,52,100 in 2022, before touching 8,94,758 in 2023.That surge, however, was partly a release of pent-up demand. Students whose international plans had been postponed during Covid-19 finally began travelling. Universities reopened, borders reopened, and visa pipelines restarted.But once the backlog cleared, students began confronting a different reality.An overseas degree is no longer simply a question of, “Where do I want to study?” Increasingly, it is a question of, “What exactly will I get for the money I am spending?”That distinction matters.The Ministry of Education itself has pointed out that decisions on studying abroad depend on factors including affordability, access to finance, exposure to foreign societies and aptitude for a particular field.In other words, the Indian student’s calculation has become more sophisticated.The old equation — foreign degree = foreign job = foreign settlement — is no longer guaranteed.The biggest attraction has become the biggest uncertaintyFor a generation of Indian students, Canada, the US, the UK and Australia represented the gold standard of international education.But the rules governing international students in these countries have changed dramatically.Canada is perhaps the clearest example. The country has tightened its rules for international students, with a new cap on study permits for 2026. It plans to issue up to 4,08,000 study permits, including 1,55,000 for new students and 2,53,000 extensions. This is 7% lower than the 2025 target and 16% lower than 2024. New student admissions are also expected to fall by nearly 50%, making it tougher for students to secure study permits and for institutions to enroll international students.For an Indian family planning a ₹30-50 lakh education investment, such policy uncertainty is not a minor inconvenience. It changes the entire risk calculation.The UK has also tightened the conditions under which international students can bring dependants.The message reaching prospective students is unmistakable: you may be welcome as a student, but the conditions surrounding your stay are becoming increasingly conditional.And that matters enormously in India, where overseas education is frequently a family decision rather than an individual’s decision.
The ROI problem: Is the foreign degree still worth it?
This may be the most uncomfortable question of all. Suppose a student spends several tens of lakhs on tuition, accommodation, insurance, and living expenses. What happens after graduation?If the answer is a high-paying job in a strong labour market, the investment may make sense.But if the student ends up grappling to find employment, working below their qualifications, or returning to India with substantial debt, the mathematics becomes much less attractive.The international education industry spent years selling the destination. Indian families are now increasingly scrutinising the return on investment.
The middle-class student is feeling the pressure
For affluent families, an overseas degree may remain affordable even when costs rise.For India’s vast middle class, however, the equation is more fragile. Education loans mean that the cost of failure is not merely academic. It can become a long-term financial obligation.Tuition fees are only one component. Students must also account for rent, food, health insurance, transportation, visa expenses, currency fluctuations, and emergency funds.Then comes the job market. A student who once believed that part-time work would help manage expenses now has to consider whether they can legally work enough, whether jobs are available, and whether the post-study employment route will remain open.This has made overseas education less of a dream and more of a high-risk financial project. And risk-sensitive families are naturally becoming cautious.
The ‘study abroad and settle abroad’ dream is also weakening
For years, the attraction of studying overseas was intertwined with immigration.The degree was often only the first step.Study → work → permanent residency → citizenship.That pathway has become less predictable.Canada’s attempt to reduce the number of temporary residents and international students is a striking example. The country’s government said the study-permit cap had helped reduce the number of international students and ease pressure on housing and other services.The UK has also altered dependent rules, while the US has faced growing uncertainty around student visas and post-study employment.For Indian students, therefore, the destination is no longer being judged solely by the university. It is being judged by the entire immigration ecosystem.That is a profound change.
Students are also discovering that a foreign degree does not automatically create a foreign career
There was once an implicit assumption that an international degree would differentiate an Indian graduate in the global employment market.But the explosion in international enrolments has made overseas qualifications less exotic.A master’s degree from abroad is no longer necessarily a career advantage in itself. Employers increasingly want demonstrable skills, internships, work experience and specialised expertise.This is particularly relevant in fields where international students crowded into programmes perceived to offer employment pathways.A foreign classroom cannot compensate indefinitely for a weak job market. And students are becoming more aware of that.
India’s higher education system is changing too
There is another side to this story that is often overlooked. The decline in overseas mobility does not necessarily mean that Indian students have suddenly become satisfied with the domestic higher education system.Rather, the opportunity cost of staying back is changing. India’s higher education ecosystem is expanding. New institutions, private universities, specialised programmes, international collaborations and industry-linked courses are giving students more options at home.The growing internationalisation of Indian higher education is also beginning to challenge the assumption that a student must physically leave India to receive international exposure.If a student can access a globally oriented curriculum, international faculty, exchange opportunities, internships, and strong industry links without taking on a huge overseas financial burden, the decision becomes less straightforward.The question is no longer simply whether India is better than abroad. It is whether abroad is sufficiently better than India to justify the additional cost and risk.That is a much higher threshold.
Information itself has become a disruptor
There is another revolution underway: Students know more than they did five or ten years ago.Social media has punctured the carefully polished image of overseas education. Students now hear directly from people struggling with accommodation, visa delays, job searches, layoffs, racism, high rents and changing immigration policies.Online communities are filled with both success stories and cautionary tales.That does not mean every negative account is representative. It does mean that the old marketing narrative, “Go abroad and your life will automatically change,” is becoming harder to sustain.Students are asking uncomfortable questions before spending money.And that is probably healthy.
Yet the data should not be misread
There is a danger of declaring that the Indian study-abroad boom is over. It is not.More than 34.7 lakh Indians disclosed education or study as their purpose of overseas travel between 2021 and 2025.And the number of Indian students already studying abroad remains enormous. An earlier government dataset recorded 18.82 lakh Indian students overseas, including more than 12.54 lakh in universities or tertiary institutions.Canada, the US, and the UK alone accounted for more than 8.55 lakh Indian students in tertiary education in that dataset.So what is changing is not India’s appetite for global education overnight.It is the nature of that appetite.The indiscriminate rush is giving way to selectivity. The three-country concentration is itself a vulnerabilityThe dominance of Canada, the US, and the UK also exposes Indian students to a peculiar risk.When a handful of countries absorb a disproportionately large share of Indian students, any change in their immigration, visa, employment, or education policies can affect thousands of Indian families simultaneously.That is precisely what is happening now.Canada tightens student numbers. Britain restricts dependants. The US becomes more unpredictable on visas and post-study pathways. Australia also faces policy changes around international student numbers.The result is not necessarily that students stop wanting international education.They start looking elsewhere.Germany, France, Ireland, New Zealand and other destinations can therefore gain attention — not merely because they are cheaper or better, but because students are searching for predictability.
